Back in 2009, the Indianapolis Colts were 14-0 and had already clinched home-field advantage in the playoffs. I was fresh out of college and my parents hosted a family get-together the Sunday after Christmas. My family are all huge Colts fans and so we had the television on watching the game against the New York Jets.
There was talk pregame that the starters might be sitting out the game to prepare for the postseason, but fans wanted to see history be made and go for a perfect season.
Any longtime Colts fan knows that former Colts general manager/team president Bill Polian had the reputation of resting starters in meaningless games.
It was so-far-so-good with the starters playing and leading the Jets 15-10. It was in the third quarter that every Colts fan won’t forget. Curtis Painter came in for Peyton Manning, and the rest was history. Lucas Oil Stadium was serenaded by boos, and every Colts fan watching from home, even my family, were yelling at the TV in disgust.
I apologize to bring up bad memories.
Looking back on it almost a decade later, Polian may have been ahead of the curve … sort of. (In case you’re wondering, I would have chased history, too.)
It’s been a subject that has brought up a lot of debate among the NFL fans over the years, but in the past few years, the answer might be right in front of our eyes.
It is the argument of rest vs. momentum.
Fans have been cautious when coaches and general managers rested players in hopes that it wouldn’t destroy any momentum going into the postseason.
Certain coaches wanted to play starters in the final week to keep confidence and momentum going for the players. Others choose to rest because of injuries and have the team back healthy.
Over the past five years, however, the debate may be settled.
To prevent that fiasco from happening again, following the 2009 season, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell came up with a solution, a solution that I’ve personally dubbed “The Bill Polian Rule.” He made changes to schedule division games in Week 17 and also push as many division games and marquee matchups as possible toward the end the season to try to prevent this from happening again.
So far, the results have been good.
From 2000-2012, only twice did the top seed in a conference win the Super Bowl — the 2003 New England Patriots and the 2009 New Orleans Saints. During that same 13-season span, seven of those Super Bowl winning teams played on Wild Card Weekend.
Since 2013, a top seed has won every Super Bowl, and nine of the 10 teams playing in those Super Bowls were top seeds. The lone exception was second-seed Atlanta playing two years ago.
That number could likely grow again today with the top seeds in each conference still playing for a spot in the big game. Even if the top seeds in each conference fall today, it’s starting to become a trend.
In fact, since the scheduling change in 2010, only three teams that played on Wild Card Weekend played in the Super Bowl — the 2010 Green Bay Packers, 2011 New York Giants and 2012 Baltimore Ravens. All three of those teams ended up winning the Super Bowl.
In essence, that means no team that has played on Wild Card Weekend has made the Super Bowl since 2012.
It took a couple years for the new scheduling changes to adjust to all of the 32 NFL teams, but the past few years, most of the starters are playing in the final week of the season, making the first-round bye a normal bye-week for those teams.
Why? Because Goodell finally made the last games of the regular season matter.
Teams are not resting starters two-to-three weeks out with a lot of playoff implications, seedings and division races still on the line.
The teams on the bye week the past five years have rested for a week as opposed to multiple weeks, almost throwing the whole momentum vs. rest debate out the window.
That evidence has been obvious the past five years.
In today’s NFL, having the bye week is the key to everything.
James Pence is a sports writer for The Republic. He can be reached at [email protected] or 812-379-5632.
