County jobless numbers drop in May, but still high

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Bartholomew County’s unemployment rate fell in May but still remains historically high as state officials take tentative steps to reopen an economy at a standstill in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In May, local unemployment stood at 12.7%, compared to an estimated 18.4% in April, according to the Indiana Department of Workforce Development.

Last month’s unemployment rate, however, was still higher than the statewide rate of 11.9% and over five times higher than Bartholomew’s jobless rate May 2019, when unemployment stood at 2.3%.

The new unemployment figures suggest that Bartholomew County may be moving in the right direction after the pandemic sent the foundation of the local economy — manufacturing — into a tailspin not seen since the Great Depression.

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Since the pandemic took hold earlier this year, Bartholomew County has gone from having sixth lowest unemployment rate in the state to being in the top third of the highest rates of Indiana’s 92 counties.

In May, Bartholomew County had the 31st highest unemployment rate in state, according to state figures. Bartholomew County had the third lowest unemployment rate in the state in May 2019.

The unemployment rates in Jackson and Jennings counties last month were 16.5% and 15.6% — fifth and 10th highest in the state.

Decatur, Jennings and Jackson counties were three of the 10 Indiana counties with the biggest jump in unemployment from March to April, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“We are very sensitive to the economic cycle,” said Roger Lee, senior research analyst with Columbus-based Kirr, Marbach and Co. “When things are good (locally), things are very good, and when things are rough, the big employers throttle back.”

“It’s a double-edged sword,” he said.

Initial unemployment claims in Bartholomew County in the manufacturing sector fell for eight consecutive weeks between April 5 and May 30, after reaching a peak of 913 the week ending April 11. Continued claims in the manufacturing sector also have declined in recent weeks after peaking with 2,903 the week ending May 2.

There were a total of 60 initial unemployment claims in the manufacturing sector and 1,231 continued claims the week ending June 6. From March 15 to June 13, a total of 4,621 initial unemployment claims were filed in the manufacturing sector in Bartholomew County.

However, several local manufacturers have continued to ramp up production and called back laid-off workers this month, which is not reflected in the May unemployment figures, said Jason Hester, president of the Greater Columbus Economic Development Corp.

Hester said the drop in unemployment is “encouraging movement.”

“What we know from speaking with our employers, and most of these conversations I’ve had with manufacturers because they are the base of our economy, many are back to 100%,” Hester said. “The most beyond that are at 80 to 90% at least. With that, those employers are coming back to full steam. They’ve called back their workers. They’re calling back their temporary workers. …I think the June unemployment numbers locally will look even better.”

“We’re moving in the right direction after our April spike,” Hester added.

Manufacturing, however, is not the only sector of the local economy that has been impacted by the pandemic.

Other industries that have been hit hard with job losses in Bartholomew County include, among others, the accommodation and food services, retail and health care and social assistance sectors.

Between March 15 and June 13, total of 1,141 initial unemployment claims were filed in the accommodation and food services sector, followed by 739 in the health care and social assistance sector and 670 in retail, according to state figures.

Though downward trend in unemployment is good news, nobody knows for sure how long it will last.

The number of laid-off workers seeking U.S. unemployment aid barely fell last week, and the reopening of small businesses has leveled off — evidence that the job market’s gains may have stalled just as a surge in coronavirus cases is endangering an economic recovery, according to the The Associated Press.

The federal government reported Thursday that the economy contracted at a 5% annual rate in the first three months of the year, a further sign of the damage being inflicted by the pandemic. The economy is expected to shrink at a roughly 30% rate in the current quarter. That would be the worst quarterly contraction, by far, since record-keeping began in 1948. Economists do expect a snap-back in the second half of the year, though not enough to reverse all the damage.

Last week, the number of people applying for jobless benefits declined slightly to 1.48 million. It was the 12th straight weekly drop, according to national reports. An additional 700,000 people applied through a program for self-employed and gig workers that made them eligible for aid for the first time. These figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal variations, so the government doesn’t include them in the official count.

Combining those figures, overall applications for jobless aid have edged down just 3% in the past two weeks — a much slower pace than in late April and May.

“There has been no real decline in weekly claims the past two weeks,” Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter, told the The Associated Press. “There has also been no real increase in job openings. What seemed like encouraging signs of recovery in May largely stalled in June.”

Bartholomew County, for its part, often comes out of recessions earlier than many parts of the country, but it is hard to say how the economy and the pandemic will evolve over the coming months, Hester said.

“I don’t have a forecast,” Hester said. “Do we get back to 3% unemployment this year? I don’t know. I’m not sure. We don’t have that crystal ball.”