Fiscal note: Tax overhaul could cost up to $4.6B; that doesn't account for any new oil

JUNEAU, Alaska — A fiscal analysis shows the oil tax overhaul that passed the Alaska Legislature could cost the state between $4.2 billion and $4.6 billion through 2019.

The fiscal note attached to SB21 is based on a revenue forecast that calls a continued net decline in production and oil prices during the period between $109 and $118 a barrel.

The total negative fiscal impact next year alone, reflecting the impact on state revenues and the operating budget, is expected to be between $670 million and $720 million.

The figures do not account for possible increases in production.

A stated goal for the push to cut taxes on the oil industry was to increase production in the state.

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