Bartholomew County’s population trends — and our local school system’s planning for them — are complicated.
Unlike some counties and school districts where the school-age population is booming (think the Indianapolis suburbs), or smaller communities, where the number of school-age kids is in decline if not free-fall, we’re in the middle. Sort of. Like we said, it’s complicated.
As The Republic’s Jana Wiersema reported last week, enrollment in Bartholomew Consolidated School District overall is projected to rise slightly in the coming decade. However, not all schools will gain, because growth is projected to be concentrated in the south and west portions of the district, where schools are already pushing capacity.
That could force some tough decisions for the district, which recently reviewed a demographic study that projects anticipated student enrollment 10 years from now. Predicting future enrollment also takes into account current trends in which some schools’ enrollment numbers are up, some are stable, and some are down.
For instance, Wiersema reported that Mt. Healthy Elementary School southwest of Columbus is already a tight squeeze, with 457 students and an estimated capacity of 475. With an expected renovation, the school’s capacity could fall to 425, even as enrollment is expected to grow to 527 students in 2031-32. Clearly, something will have to give there.
Meanwhile, Smith Elementary School on Columbus’ east side is expected to lose more than 100 K-6 students over the next 10 years, falling from the current 465 to a projected 354 students by 2031.
“When we look at it, over the next decade, three of our elementary schools are expected to decline in enrollment, four to be mostly steady, and then four expected to increase pretty significantly,” said BCSC Assistant Superintendent of Financial Services Chad Phillips. “And unfortunately, three of those four schools are where we already see enrollment larger than we would like, either from a capacity standpoint or from an educational standpoint.”
This in itself would be a lot to plan for, especially as the district has ambitious plans to remodel multiple elementary schools. Beginning with Parkside Elementary, one of BCSC’s largest, the school corporation plans to renovate several elementary schools, most of which are more than 50 years old. The planned renovations may reduce classroom space to bring the buildings up to current standards.
Add in the possibility that some schools may eventually host expanded pre-K programs, and the calculus becomes even more puzzling.
“So we feel like learning this information about where we might be from an enrollment standpoint, and the shift of the population towards the west and to the south of the city really tells us that we need to pay close attention to our facilities planning so that we’re planning for 10 years down the road and not two years down the road,” Phillips said.
AS BCSC strategizes over future population trends — and how to plan for them — flexibility will be critical, as will clear communication with the community. From what we can see, the school system is passing those tests by taking responsible steps now with the best data available and sharing those forecasts with the public.
