Unemployment in Bartholomew County ticked down slightly last month while the local labor force continued to be below pre-pandemic levels.
The local jobless rate stood at 2.3% in November, which was tied with nine counties for the fourth lowest rate in the state, according to figures released this week by the Indiana Department of Workforce Development. Unemployment was 2.4% in October and 1.7% in November 2021.
Indiana’s unemployment rate was a seasonally adjusted 3% in November, unchanged from the month before and up from 2.7% a year ago. U.S. unemployment was a seasonally adjusted 3.7% last month, also unchanged compared to October but down from 4.2% in November 2021.
At the same time, the local labor force totaled 43,387 people last month, up from 42,681 a year ago but still lower than pre-pandemic levels, state records show. By comparison, the county’s labor force roughly hovered between 44,400 and 46,700 from January 2018 to February 2020, just before the pandemic struck.
The update from state officials came just days after the federal government reported that the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell significantly the week ending Dec. 10, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and slow inflation, The Associated Press reported.
Applications for jobless claims fell to 211,000 for the week ending Dec. 10, down by 20,000 from the previous week’s 231,000, the Labor Department reported last week. Jobless claims are seen as a proxy for layoffs, and last week’s level was the lowest in more than two months, according to wire reports.
The four-week moving average of claims, which evens out some of the week-to-week volatility, fell by 3,000 to 227,250. About 1.67 million people were receiving jobless aid the week that ended Dec. 3, up 1,000 from the week before.
Locally, 33 Bartholomew County workers filed initial unemployment claims the week ending Dec. 10, up slightly from 32 the week before, according to state records.
A total of 101 Bartholomew County residents were receiving jobless aid as of the week ending Dec. 3, the highest total since the week ending Sept. 10, according to the most recent local data. The number of local workers receiving unemployment benefits has gradually increased in six of the past eight weeks on record since the county recorded 82 workers receiving jobless aid in early October.
The update also comes nearly a week after the Federal Reserve raised its short-term lending rate by 0.5 percentage points, a smaller increase than the previous four increases of 0.75 percentage points, according to wire reports. Its key rate now stands in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest in 15 years.
In somewhat of a surprise, Fed policymakers forecast that their key short-term rate will reach a range of 5% to 5.25% by the end of 2023, according to the AP. That suggests that the Fed is poised to raise its rate by an additional three-quarters of a point and leave it there through next year.
Fed officials have signaled that to slow inflation, the unemployment rate needs to be at least 4%, according to wire reports. Currently, the unemployment rate is 3.7%, a couple of ticks above a half-century low. U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs last month. There are nearly two job openings for every unemployed American.
In its updated forecasts, the Fed’s policymakers predicted slower growth and higher unemployment for next year and 2024, according to wire reports. The unemployment rate is envisioned to jump to 4.6% by the end of 2023, from 3.7% today. That would mark a significant increase in joblessness that typically would reflect a recession.
Many economists expect the U.S. to slip into a recession next year as the Fed’s rate hikes increase borrowing costs and slow economic activity, according to wire reports.
