Bloomberg Opinion
Is the age of nuclear fusion finally dawning?
After many decades of not-so-productive research, scientists have been making serious progress toward an energy revolution. Earlier this month came news of the latest milestone: Scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California recently induced a fusion reaction that produced a net energy gain — that is, it generated more power than it consumed.
Although its practical consequences may be limited, it was a major symbolic and scientific achievement. “Net gain” has been the elusive lodestar of fusion research since the 1950s. Realizing it should give a major boost to global research efforts, provide crucial data for other scientists to study, validate the push for more government investment, and offer a tantalizing glimpse of fusion’s real-world possibilities.
It’s no exaggeration to say that those could be revolutionary. A workable fusion reactor could produce effectively limitless energy, with no intermittency, no carbon emissions, no dangerous waste and nowhere near the material resources required by other renewable projects. President Joe Biden’s goal of a net-zero economy would start to look more plausible; humanity’s longer-term climate and energy challenges would seem much more manageable. That’s to say nothing of the other scientific and technological advances fusion could one day unlock.
Some skepticism is still warranted. Few technologies have been hyped quite so relentlessly over the years, and the remaining challenges to building a viable commercial reactor — technical and economic — are immense. Many years of expensive research and problem-solving lie ahead, with no guarantee of success. Even so, the stars are aligning for progress, and potentially for more breakthroughs.
One reason for optimism is that the federal government has gotten serious about fusion. In March, the White House announced a long-term strategy to accelerate commercial fusion efforts. Congress recently directed a record $713 million for fusion research and construction, along with some $50 million for a major public-private partnership. Fusion projects will also soon benefit from hundreds of millions in Inflation Reduction Act funds. All told, this is the kind of focused commitment that has been long overdue.
Private enterprise is also entering the game on a significant scale. So far, investors have dedicated nearly $5 billion to about 35 fusion startups, according to the industry’s trade group, with funding roughly doubling since last year. Several of these companies have the backing of Silicon Valley luminaries, including General Fusion Inc. (Jeff Bezos), Commonwealth Fusion Systems (Bill Gates), and Helion Energy Inc. (Peter Thiel). Some are already breaking ground on new facilities. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the industry could one day command a market valuation of $40 trillion.
Unlocking the power of the stars has never been an easy goal. But few scientific endeavors could have a greater potential payoff. Keep going.
