Steve Roberts
When Mitch McConnell, the Senate’s 81-year-old Republican leader, recently froze up during a news conference, he triggered tremors of trepidation in both parties. If something like that were to afflict 80-year-old President Joe Biden or 77-year-old Republican candidate Donald Trump, the whole trajectory of the campaign could be altered in an instant.
But even if those elderly leaders avoid such blatant examples of frailty, the McConnell Moment is a stark reminder that age will play a major role in the next election.
Biden has already suffered several damaging episodes — stumbling on steps and stages, falling off his bike, confusing the names of countries and his own grandchildren. Many of those mishaps are currently being featured in GOP attack ads, and his rivals are warning that a vote for Biden means that Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to become president.
A recent Yahoo/You Gov survey found that 67% of Americans — including 48% of Democrats — think that Biden is too old to serve another term. In an ABC/Washington Post poll last May, only one-third of Americans said Biden has the “mental sharpness” or physical vigor the presidency demands. While Trump is less than four years younger than Biden, he comes across as more energetic, and clear majorities expressed confidence in his physical and mental fitness.
“The trend line in Americans’ views of Biden’s mental agility over the past few years stands out as a clear warning sign for his 2024 campaign,” concludes the Post.
“Age looms as one of his most glaring vulnerabilities,” adds NBC.
Biden is running against history, not just Republicans. Americans have always prized youth and vitality in our presidents. Take the four Democrats who were elected before Biden — Jack Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama. Their average age on the day they were chosen was 47. Even Lyndon Johnson was only 55 when he took office after Kennedy’s death.
All four campaigned on fresh, forward-looking themes. Kennedy, the first non-general World War II veteran to win the White House, promised a “New Frontier.” Carter offered a turn toward honesty and openness after the crimes of Watergate and vowed, “I’ll never lie to you.”
Clinton, the first baby boomer president, adopted a campaign theme song by Fleetwood Mac that urged, “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow. Yesterday’s gone, yesterday’s gone.” Obama, the first Black president, promoted the slogan “Hope and Change.”
The only thing new about Biden is his longevity. He’d be 86 at the end of his second term, nine years older than Ronald Reagan was when he left office in January 1989 and set the previous record for our oldest president.
Of course, advanced age has advantages as well as drawbacks that Biden can exploit. “I think we live in a volatile world. We live in a chaotic world,” former White House communications director Kate Bedingfield told NPR. “I think people are looking for stability and strong leadership. And I think that experience and wisdom is part of that.”
Biden’s best defense against his advanced age is his likely opponent. Trump is also elderly, and hardly a picture of good health.
More seriously, Biden intends to stress the issues of character and judgment, which resonate with voters like Melody Marquess, 54, a left-leaning independent from Tyler, Texas, who told The New York Times: “I’m sorry, but both of them, to me, are too old. Joe Biden to me seems less mentally capable, age-wise. But Trump is just evil. He’s done horrible things.”
Ashlyn Cowan, 27, a research scientist from Nashville, agreed that Biden is not “the greatest person to do the job,” but added, “Ultimately, Biden is not going to harm the country as much as I believe Trump would.”
Those are good arguments. But Biden has to avoid a McConnell Moment for the next 15 months. That could really sink him.
Steven Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. He can be contacted by email at [email protected]. Send comments to [email protected].
