The 2024 presidential primary will soon officially begin! While presidential nominations are truly exciting for us political geeks, living in a state like Indiana means that most of us will not have a chance to meaningfully participate. We must be prepared to live vicariously through party activists in states whose contests actually matters.
The Iowa Caucus formally kicks off the 2024 Republican presidential nomination on Monday. The modern system for how we nominate presidential candidates has been in place for more than 50 years, ever since the disastrous 1968 Democratic National Convention. Now, candidates compete in a series of sequential state contests in an attempt to accumulate delegates to formally win the nomination at the convention.
The primary calendar is less frontloaded than it has been in recent years. New Hampshire follows Iowa a week later, while Nevada and South Carolina hold their contests in February. In the 51 days after the Iowa Caucus, 22 states will have held their contests by Super Tuesday, March 5th. Indiana voters, however, will still need to wait almost two more months before getting a chance to vote.
By most accounts, former President Donald Trump is poised to secure the nomination well before Hoosiers get a chance to participate. The Real Clear Polling Average currently has Trump at 63%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley tied in a distant second with 11% of the vote. Even though Trump is currently facing 91 charges across four distinct criminal indictments and has already been found liable in civil court for sexual abuse and defamation in one case and fraud in another, Republican primary voters have remained supportive of the former president.
Indiana will not hold its contest until May 7, 113 days after the Iowa Caucus. Historically, Indiana has not mattered because either the frontrunner already had secured 50% of the delegates or all of their opponents previously withdrew. Republican primary voters might fondly think of the 2016 Republican Primary where Indiana provided Trump a decisive victory over Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, but that is the only Indiana primary in the last 40 years where there was not a presumptive nominee already in place.
My research with Caitlin Jewitt finds a positive relationship between states holding their primaries during the competitive portion of the primary and voter turnout. That helps explain why, on average, less than 19% of Indiana Republicans have turned out to vote in the last eight contested Republican presidential primaries.
Perhaps 2024 will be different. The 2024 governor contest is shaping up to be one of the most expensive, contested races with at least five hopefuls vying to replace term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb. However, the presidential race is likely to be over by the time Indiana votes. Many candidates, like former Vice President Mike Pence, will drop out, will run out of money, or will start auditioning to be the vice-presidential nominee well before voters start casting ballots here.
While polls show most Americans do not want a rematch of President Joe Biden and former President Trump, that appears to be the likeliest outcome. So, if you care who each party nominates, your efforts are best served by spending your money and time volunteering elsewhere. Or you can start to pressure the Indiana General Assembly to consider moving the state’s primary date earlier in the spring for the 2028 contest.
Either way, pay attention to this race in other states, because they are the ones making the choice for us this cycle.
Gregory Shufeldt is an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis. This commentary previously appeared at indianacapitalchronicle.com. Send comments to editorial@therepublic.com.
