Sluggish primary voting turnout continues

Local election officials and party leaders say that noncompetitive races for the GOP and Democratic nominations for president may be contributing to lower-than-anticipated turnout for the May 7 primary.

Roughly 15 days into the early-voting period, just 3% of registered voters in Bartholomew County have voted early in-person or returned an absentee-by-mail, according to the Bartholomew County Clerk’s Office that were current as of noon Monday.

Barring a significant increase in voting this week, the county is on pace for roughly a 4% turnout during the early voting period.

That would be the lowest turnout during the early voting period since the 2012 presidential primary, when turnout was about 2%, according to county records. Final turnout that year after polls closed on Election Day was around 24%.

By comparison, 12% of registered voters voted early in-person or absentee by mail in the 2016 primary.

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic prompted state officials to delay the election four weeks and shorten the early in-person voting period, while a record 8,313 voters in Bartholomew County voted absentee by mail.

As of noon Monday, 1,139 people had voted early in-person and 304 had returned their absentee-by-mail ballots. Just 574 people requested an absentee-by-mail ballot this year.

“We’re hopeful this week that our numbers will continue to pick up,” said Bartholomew County Clerk Shari Lentz. “I’ve been talking with other clerks across the state. We’re not alone. Every county is experiencing this (lower turnout). It’s hard to say why that is.”

“I’m sure that by both of our presidential candidates being set — that happens sometimes with Indiana being a later primary — a lot of people do not see the urgency to get to the polls,” Lentz added.

As local voters prepare to head to the polls, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have both already secured enough of their parties’ delegates to win a majority vote at the Democratic and Republican national party conventions this summer, according to The Associated Press.

However, that does not mean that there aren’t any competitive races on the GOP or Democratic ballots this year. There are several contested primaries this year on the Republican ballot.

Six Republicans are seeking their party’s nomination for Indiana governor, including current Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Sen. Mike Braun, as well as Brad Chambers, Eric Doden, Curtis Hill and Jamie Reitenour.

Seven Republicans — Jamison Carrier, Darin Childress, Bill Frazier, John Jacob, Jeff Raatz, Jefferson Shreve and Mike Speedy — are seeking the GOP nomination for Indiana’s 6th Congressional District after three-term incumbent Rep. Greg Pence, R-Ind., opted against seeking reelection.

Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., is facing a primary challenge from Hugh Doty.

Rep. Jim Lucas, R-Seymour, is facing his first test at the ballot box since pleading guilty last year to charges that he crashed his vehicle through an interstate guardrail while under the influence of alcohol and then fled the scene. He later completed probation.

Lucas is being challenged by Brownstown teacher and former West Virginia lawmaker Brian Savilla for the Republican nomination for Indiana House District 69.

Rep. Jennifer Meltzer, R-Shelbyville, is facing a challenge from Edward K. Comstock II for the GOP nomination for Indiana House District 73.

At the local level, Bartholomew County Commissioner Larry Kleinhenz is seeking an eighth term in office. He is being challenged by Rick Miller for the GOP nomination for Bartholomew County Commissioner District 1.

Four Republicans — Michael R. Bell, Kim Bennett, John Prohaska and Marcus Daniel Speer — are seeking their party’s nomination for three Bartholomew County Council at-large seats.

Bartholomew County Republican Chair Luann Welmer said she is hopeful that people are still deciding who they want to vote for and will come out to vote, though she said the lack of a competitive presidential primary might be tamping down turnout.

“I am disappointed. I’m truly hoping that we’ll get the vote out for the Republican Party because it is important, especially for our local races,” Welmer said. “We’ve got great options for them to choose from, for governor, for 6th district, for 9th district, for county council. I hope that people come out in droves between now and May 7.”

“We just don’t have the primary choices that I think people enjoy being a part of,” Welmer added. “It seems like (the presidential nominations) are already set, and (voters) feel like maybe there is no reason to vote.”

Bartholomew County Democratic Party Ross Thomas said he was not surprised that turnout on the Democratic side was low so far.

As of Saturday, just 221 voters in Bartholomew County had participated in the Democratic primary. Because it is a primary, voters must select either the Democratic or Republican ticket. It is not possible to vote for candidates in either party.

There are not a lot of competitive races on the Democratic ticket. Marc Carmichael and Valerie McCray are seeking the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. D. Liam Dorris and Tim Peck are seeking their party’s nomination for Indiana’s 9th Congressional District.

“I wouldn’t say it’s surprising on our side,” Thomas said. “…There’s just not a lot on our side to vote for in a primary. Of course, we still encourage people to vote in the primary. But as far as our local races, there is not a lot that is contested.”

“On the other side, those are highly contested, whether you’re talking about governor, 6th District congress, those all seem to me (that )Republicans would want to vote in those. But far be it to me to tell Republicans when they should vote,” Thomas added.

The lower-than-expected turnout so far this primary may be driven by more people wanting to wait until Election Day or voter apathy, particularly with the presumptive rematch between Trump and Biden, said Aaron Dusso, an associate professor of political science at IUPUI.

As of April 30, 53% of Americans had an unfavorable view of Trump, while 55% had an unfavorable view of Biden, according to data-driven news site FiveThirtyEight, which compiled an average of nationwide polls.

“We’ve seen in some recent polls that have come out in the AP where just excitement for the election coming up is certainly lower than it was four years ago, quite a bit lower,” Dusso said. “It’s kind of average for the long-term trend line, but people seem to be turned off more by politics.”

“The top (of the ticket) matters because that is what people see more than anything else,” Dusso added. “…The politics is still that (it’s) Biden versus Trump at this point. A lot of people are turned off by that and perhaps this lack of enthusiasm is trickling down to those lower-level (races.)”

At the same time, there has generally been lower voter participation in Bartholomew County in presidential primaries since the 1990s, compared to previous decades.

Median turnout in the county in the eight presidential presidential primaries from 1960 to 1988 was 42%, the records show. Turnout only fell below 40% twice during that period.

By comparison, median turnout in the eight presidential primaries from 1992 to 2020 was 28%. The only two presidential primaries since 1988 that have seen more than 35% turnout were in 2008 — when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were locked in a tight primary election when local voters went out to vote — and in 2016 — when there were competitive presidential races on both parties’ tickets.

In the meantime, early in-person voting continues weekdays through Friday at Donner Center, 739 22nd St. Early in-person voting also will be held from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. at Donner Center and the Bartholomew County Government Office Building, and 8 a.m. to noon at Donner Center on Monday, the day before the election.

“I do hope because of our races here in Indiana and locally that everyone will make that important priority to get to the polls and participate in this primary,” Lentz said.