Six months to go!
And the most surprising thing about the 2024 presidential campaign has been its lack of surprises. But that won’t necessarily last.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump both clinched their party’s nominations with ease, ensuring the first presidential re-run in 68 years. The polls still show a close race. And the presence of alternative choices threatens to play havoc with pre-election calculations, though perhaps not as initially anticipated.
Still, as in past elections, unexpected events over the next months could upset the current relative parity of the two major party nominees.
Here are 10 potential factors:
A turn in the economy. Biden counts on the continuation of economic growth and, perhaps, greater acknowledgment of it by voters. But the persistence of inflation, albeit at a lower rate, is preventing the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates, and recent statistics and market drops could presage a less dynamic economy.
The impact of Trump’s trials. The GOP nominee could not only become the first major presidential candidate ever convicted of a felony, but he faces the likelihood of spending weeks in courtrooms as his dirty linen is aired. Some think the latter prospect is as perilous for him as the outcome because it reminds people of some unsavory aspects of his past. It also keeps him off the campaign trail, a possible plus.
The ever-present health issue. Voter doubts about reelecting Biden at 81 remain, but Trump has been showing signs of his 77 years. Biden’s new surge of vigor in recent weeks while Trump was forced to sit in court may reduce the former president’s advantage in voter perceptions of their relative energy levels.
To debate or not to debate? Trump challenged Biden to debate daily, weekly or monthly, believing he’d benefit from his greater energy level. Biden said he would debate at some point, perhaps believing he could stem doubts about his ability to provide vigorous leadership in a second term. Biden has shown a tendency to perform well on high-profile occasions, and Trump a propensity for over-reaching. But it remains unclear if debates will happen, who’ll run them and who’ll benefit.
The intrusion of the real world. Outside events have often affected election outcomes, such as Jimmy Carter’s difficulties in resolving the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980 and former FBI Director James Comey’s pre-election revival of Hillary Clinton’s email controversy in 2016. Trump hopes the continuing war in the Middle East and resulting campus turmoil will persuade voters of the need for a stronger leader. Biden hopes it shows the need for an experienced hand at the helm, but Democrats fear divisions could reduce turnout of younger voters.
Disorders at the conventions. Critics of Biden’s support for Israel, who have precipitated much of the recent campus disorder, plan massive protests at the Democratic convention in Chicago in what could echo the demonstrations that rocked the party’s chances in 1968. City officials hope to ensure protesters get nowhere near the United Center. And there will also likely be anti-Trump protests in Milwaukee during the Republican convention.
The impact of No. 2. Trump could add an unpredictable new element to the race by picking an unconventional running mate, like New York Rep. Elise Stefanik or South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, the only Black GOP senator. Incumbent Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has poorer job approval numbers than Biden. But vice presidential choices rarely impact the result.
Possible third, fourth and fifth options. The ballot in many states will likely include two left-wing alternatives, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and social critic Cornel West, plus the unpredictable candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democrats worry about the impact of his famous political name, though most members of his family openly support Biden. Republicans fear his impact among conservatives who oppose vaccine mandates. Past elections showed a handful of voters can tip key battleground states and, with them, the election, as Ralph Nader did in 2000 and Stein did in 2016.
Supreme Court action – or inaction. The Supreme Court has been slow-walking consideration of Trump’s contention that prosecutions of him are unconstitutional because a president has absolute immunity for his acts while in office. The decision — likely in June — could affect whether the Washington trial charging Trump with illegal efforts to subvert the 2020 election will occur before this year’s vote.
Election disruptions. Republicans are training cadres of lawyers to monitor voting in every precinct of battleground states, prepared to question the eligibility of large numbers of individual voters. Democrats fear they are laying the basis to challenge a Trump defeat, just as they did in 2020, and are preparing to counter the GOP effort. There is also concern that the presence of large numbers of poll watchers could have an intimidating impact and even precipitate violence in some locales.
Because so many voters have a low opinion of both candidates, NBC News analyst Chuck Todd expects them to delay their decisions as long as possible.
“I truly believe that most polling between now and October will tell us very little,” he said recently. “It’s the last 10% of ‘swing’ voters who either swing between the two parties or swing between voting and not voting who will decide this election.”
And late voting decisions mean unexpected October events could play havoc with pre-election expectations.
Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may email him at [email protected]. Send comments to [email protected].
