State and local health officials are expressing concern that Indiana could see “a surge on top of a surge” as COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in much of the state, including Bartholomew County, remain high heading into Christmas and New Year’s.
Chief among their concerns is that people will let their guards down and defy appeals to not travel, avoid large gatherings, wear masks and maintain physical distance, which could ultimately contribute to a repeat of the autumn surge, which resulted in 3,866 COVID-19 cases and 20 deaths in Bartholomew County.
Though hospitalizations in Indiana and at Columbus Regional Hospital have declined somewhat over the past week, hospital officials said they “are not breathing a sigh of relief,” as Bartholomew County typically sees an increase in COVID-19 transmission and hospitalizations after holidays.
As of Sunday, there were 38 people hospitalized with COVID-19 at CRH, down from 50 the previous Sunday, but still higher than in the spring and summer, when hospitalizations never exceeded 22.
The chances that at least one person with COVID-19 attends a gathering of 15 people in Bartholomew County is 44%, according to researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology, who developed an event risk assessment planning tool based on infection rates and prevalence studies.
The chances are higher in some neighboring counties, including Jackson County, where the probability is 52%.
However, those chances go up dramatically as the size of the gathering increases.
In Bartholomew County, the probability that at least one person with COVID-19 attends a 25-person gathering is 62% and 88% at a 50-person gathering, according to the researchers.
In Jackson County, there is a 71% chance that someone with COVID-19 attends a 25-person gathering and a 94% chance at a gathering with 50 people.
For more on this story, see Wednesday’s Republic.
