Dusso
Experts say a White House-led push to redraw Indiana’s congressional map ahead of the 2026 midterm elections could set off a “chain effect” reshaping the two congressional districts that cover Bartholomew County.
For the past couple months, President Donald Trump and his allies have been pressuring Indiana Republicans to take up early redistricting — a process typically done once a decade after the U.S. census — as part of a broader effort to preserve the GOP’s narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republicans currently hold seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats, while Democrats control districts in Indianapolis and northwestern Indiana. Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance have urged lawmakers to convene a special session and redraw the map to expand that 7–2 advantage.
Though Senate Republicans acknowledged on Wednesday that they currently lack the votes to pursue early redistricting, Republican Gov. Mike Braun has expressed optimism that more state lawmakers opposed to the move “will come around.”
While the push appears to have stalled for the moment, experts say a revised map could alter the contours of Indiana’s 6th and 9th Congressional Districts — both of which include parts of Bartholomew County — particularly if Republicans seek to flip both Democratic-held seats.
“If (Republicans) are trying to win both districts (held by Democrats), then absolutely every district has to be affected. There’s no question,” said Aaron Dusso, associate professor and chair of political science at IU Indianapolis. “If they’re just trying to get one more (seat) … then you might limit it to just a few other districts that might be affected.”
‘You can’t eliminate voters’
State lawmakers cannot just draw district boundaries wherever they want, experts said. They have to follow federal standards in the U.S. Constitution and the federal Voting Rights Act of 1965, as well as Indiana Constitution and state laws, when drawing congressional maps.
One such rule requires congressional districts to have roughly equal populations, Dusso said. As a result, moving voters out of one of district means that the population of other districts will need to be adjusted accordingly.
“You can’t eliminate voters,” Dusso said. “…If you take 10,000 people from one district and put them in another, you’ve got to take 10,000 people out of that other district and put them somewhere else. So, there’s this chain effect that’s going to happen throughout the state, particularly if (Republicans) are trying to win both districts.”
“You’re not just adding Democrats to those other districts,” Dusso added. “You’re taking away Republicans also. …You can’t just delete voters. You have to move them somewhere, and then you’ve got to move the current voters in those districts back into a different district. It’s a game of chess that you’re playing here, but you can’t eliminate any of the pieces.”
At the same time, some experts and politicians have warned that attempts to gerrymander one district can backfire and end up helping the opposing party in other districts.
To make Democratic-leaning districts more favorable to Republicans, map drawers would have to shift some Democratic areas into districts currently held by Republicans, potentially making them more vulnerable. They also would have to move Republican areas out of Republican-held districts.
While a lot of the attention has been on Indianapolis and northwestern Indiana, just 28.4% of the 1.16 million Hoosiers who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in the 2024 election were in Marion or Lake counties, according to records with the Indiana Election Division.
Additionally, the incumbent president’s party typically loses House seats in midterm elections. For instance, the Democrats won a net gain of 40 seats in the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term, while the Republicans won a net gain nine seats in the 2022 midterm elections when Democrat Joe Biden was president.
“There is definitely a risk that it will backfire,” said Marjorie Hershey, professor emeritus of political science at Indiana University. “…The problem is that the 40-plus percent of non-Republicans in the state don’t just disappear. When you redistrict, they’ve got to be put someplace, and there’s always the danger that if you’re too flagrant about the redistricting move … you’re just going to make a lot of people mad and that those Democrats in districts that are at least close to being competitive are more likely to turn out, particularly in the first election after this happens.”
‘Not normal’
Experts said the White House-led push to redraw Indiana’s congressional map, as well as politicians openly calling for partisan gerrymandering, is “not normal.”
Trump has been personally engaged in lobbying Indiana Senate Republicans, including joining a private call with members of the Senate GOP caucus to push for the remap, The Indiana Capital Chronicle reported.
Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith, who also serves as president of the Senate, issued a lengthy statement Wednesday sharply criticizing members of his own party for hesitating on the issue.
“The people of Indiana did not elect a Republican supermajority so our Senate could cower, compromise or collapse at the very moment courage is required,” Beckwith wrote, calling on GOP senators to “find your backbone” and back a “9-0 conservative map.”
Vance has traveled to Indiana twice in recent weeks to rally support, while many Indiana Republicans visited the White House after receiving invitations from the Trump administration.
“Like so much that has happened during the Trump administration, this is not normal,” Hershey said. “We have had rare instances (in the United States) of mid-decade redistricting. They have all been in order to gain a partisan advantage, and that is what we’re seeing now. …I think what’s most significant about this is that the Trump administration and Gov. Braun have not offered a fig leaf about any justification for this other than it will help Republicans.”
While state legislators representing parts of Bartholomew County were unanimously against early redistricting at first — an idea they characterized as ranging from “ridiculous” and “ill-advised” to “optically terrible” — they are now divided.
Rep. Jim Lucas, R-Seymour, has gone from what he said was a “’hard no’ to a ‘hell yes’” on early redistricting.
“When you look at immigration reform, health care reform, voter reform, there are just so many things that have been neglected for so long by both parties. I feel that this is the last great opportunity we’re going to have to make any meaningful effect. And those changes do positively affect all Hoosiers,” Lucas said.
Rep. Ryan Lauer, R-Columbus, initially called early redistricting “ill-advised” before acknowledging its likelihood had “increased somewhat” following the White House visit.
Sen. Greg Walker, R-Columbus, said early redistricting is “a ridiculous idea” that “would backfire.”
Hershey said some of the hesitance among Indiana Republicans is that the new maps could backfire and make strong Republican districts more competitive.
“There are a number of Republicans in the supermajority who say, “Look, I’ve been winning in the district as it stands now. If you mess with the borders, you increase uncertainty in my upcoming race, and I don’t like that.’ And as a result, there has been at least some pushback from within the state legislative Republicans and the Republicans in the House of Representatives, saying, ‘You’re trying to advantage the national Republican Party, and President Trump in particular, but you’re putting my reelection at risk in doing so, and my concern is primarily with my reelection rather than yours.’”
Nationwide battle
The issue of early redistricting ahead of next year’s elections started this summer in Texas, which was the first state to answer Trump’s call to redraw its congressional districts for the GOP’s advantage ahead of next year’s elections, The Associated Press reported.
Democrats in California countered with their own redistricting effort, followed by Republicans in Missouri. North Carolina has been the latest to take action, which the Republican-led General Assembly approved changes Wednesday to U.S. House district designed to help the party unseat a Democratic incumbent.
Other states are considering joining the redistricting battle, including Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska and Virginia.
Experts said the midcycle gerrymandering push risks further eroding trust in political institutions and could pose a threat to democracy, particularly as politicians from both parties explicitly call for redrawing districts to decrease the chances that their opponents win elections.
“One of the side effects that is dangerous is that this openly partisan discussion clearly is going to desensitize people from what at least been … a belief in the democratic process,” Dusso said. “…This is a step away from that. It’s a public discourse that is likely going to filter down to the average person, and the average person is going to be less concerned with democratic institutions and ultimately maybe (they’re) not going to care about democratic institutions anymore, and that’s a big danger for the country.”
“It’s about, ‘Well, we have to fight (in) partisan ways to deflect their partisan fighting’ … and eventually we throw the baby out with the bath water, and we lose our democracy,” Dusso added.
