Economic output in Columbus, Indiana and the United States is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2020, as companies and consumers grapple with the fallout and uncertainty of global trade friction and a projected slowdown in U.S. manufacturing, economic experts said.
“We think that the key risk in 2020 is the risk of a further rise in protectionism and trade wars,” said Ellie Mafi-Kreft, a clinical associate professor of business economics and public policy at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University.
Mafi-Kreft, who was one of four experts who provided an economic forecast to a crowd of around 160 during Wednesday’s Indiana Business Outlook Panel at The Commons, said overall global economic growth in 2020 is expected to be around 3.4% — the slowest growth rate since the financial crisis of 2009.
The projected slowdown, she said, is largely due to several trade disputes, including trade tensions between the United States and China.
The ongoing trade disputes could create further uncertainty for many businesses in Indiana and impact the manufacturing sector and exports, said Sun Yoon, an economic research analyst at the Indiana Business Research Center who provided an economic forecast for the state of Indiana.
A slowdown in manufacturing could be bad news for a community such as Columbus that is heavily dependent upon manufacturing, exports and Cummins, a global diesel engine and power company and the city’s largest employer, said another panelist, Steven Mohler, a visiting professor of management at IUPUC who presented the local economic forecast.
“A continuing decline (in China) coupled with trade disputes reduce the prospects for export-driven businesses, including Cummins, because Cummins relies upon China for growth prospects outside its North American trucking business,” Mohler said. “This poses a threat for the Columbus economy in 2020.”
For more on this story, see Thursday’s Republic.
