Carl Leubsdorf
Donald Trump is reportedly preparing an early announcement of his 2024 candidacy. The White House insists President Joe Biden will seek reelection.
But a lot of prominent figures in both the Republican and Democratic parties are behaving like they don’t believe either will ultimately run – or think they’re eminently beatable.
And the early maneuvering suggests both parties could face free-for-all nominating fights like the GOP in 2016 and the Democrats in 2020, starting the day after the Nov. 8 midterm elections.
Among Republicans, Trump has clearly sought to preempt the field by raising a multimillion-dollar war chest, choosing candidates in many GOP primaries and campaigning like it already is 2024.
But doubts about his real intentions, continuing threats of legal action and concern about the negative aspects of his prospective candidacy always made it likely Republicans would have the kind of contest faced by parties without an incumbent president.
Though the polls show the former president starts as the person to beat, his prospective opponents include many of his former closest aides – including former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
They’re hardly the only ones. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, shown in recent polls as Trump’s closest rival, has pointedly refused to say he’d back off if the former president runs. Outgoing Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, an anti-Trump moderate, has not ruled out a race. Nor has Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, perhaps the former president’s most outspoken GOP foe.
And an imposing array of GOP senators and governors have followed the usual path that prospective candidates make to help fellow Republicans in such crucial early voting states as Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
The Democratic outlook for 2024 is even more complicated: The party has a weak incumbent vowing to seek a second term – and an unsettled nominating calendar.
But Biden’s vows are not deterring other candidates, though most of their moves are more covert than overt.
The reasons are obvious: Biden’s age (he would be 86 at the end of a second term); his unpopularity (job approval below 40); and widespread opposition to his running again (a New York Times poll this week showed more than half of Democrats oppose his seeking reelection – though it also showed him beating Trump).
Those making tacit opening 2024 moves include two prominent big state governors – California’s Gavin Newsom and Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker – and a member of Biden’s own Cabinet, Transportation Secretary and 2020 also-ran Pete Buttigieg. Others include New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
The most obvious Democratic alternative to Biden, of course, is his vice president, former California Sen. Kamala Harris. She had a rough year politically, given the negative stories about her staff problems and her lack of influence within the administration.
But the Supreme Court’s decision reversing its Roe v. Wade abortion ruling gives her a powerful platform to campaign on this fall, stressing an issue important to Democrats that could help them counter a potential GOP tide.
Still, Democrats expect Harris to face opposition should she seek to succeed Biden in 2024. And though age could be a factor in deterring Biden’s candidacy, an aide to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said the Vermont independent might also enter an open 2024 race, though he is even older than the president.
Until the Nov. 8 midterm elections, expect a continuation of the shadow 2024 campaign. But once the results are in, it’s likely to emerge openly, in ways unpredictable at present.
